The ViaMar Container Market Outlook is a comprehensive analysis that covers all ship sizes in this market and incorporates the effects of all relevant trades. It is updated four times each year, with a forecasting horizon of 3-4 years, with focus on developments in earnings and ship values.
The analysis includes the following elements:
- Outlook for world economic growth and oil price development.
- Supply developments: estimated future fleet developments, including scrapping, new orders, slippage, cancellation, deliveries, congestion and slow steaming.
- Demand developments: estimated future seaborne trade of containers measured in TEU in the Transpacific, Asia/Europe, Transatlantic, Intra Asia and Intra Europe trades, as well as North-South trades, generating the bulk of TEU-mile demand.
- The future container tonnage balance, utilization rate. From the utilization rate ViaMar’s forecasts of earnings are derived for each of the standard ship types and sizes: 1700 TEU, 2500 TEU, 3500 TEU, 4500 TEU, 6500 TEU and the 8500 TEU.
- Based on the findings of the ViaMar Asset Market Outlook, which incorporates all shipping markets effect on the commonly shared newbuilding market, we also develop forecasts of newbuilding prices and secondhand values for the main container ship types and sizes (see also Shipvalues and Investments)
- Finally, the ViaMar Dynamic Ship Value Model is shown for standard container vessels to evaluate investment opportunities considering projected earnings and ship value developments.
For more information about the ViaMar Container Market Outlook contact:
Ingrid N. Aas, Senior Shipping Economist