The ViaMar Asset Market Model is a unique tool developed in the early 2000s to assess the volatile development of vessel values. The model focuses on projecting new building and second hand vessels’ values, both of which are essential for shipping market participants. A research program initiated by ViaMar in 2002 found that it was possible to identify the drivers for changes to vessels’ values.
Subsequently, a series of quarterly calculations for the standard vessels in the tanker, dry, container and LPG shipping markets have been regularly performed in order to verify, test and calibrate the model. The results are exceptionally good.
The model is based on the general assumption that newbuilding values are the result of a supply and demand relation between shipyard capacity and total demand for newbuilding services. Furthermore that newbuilding prices move in parallel between different ship types and sizes over time.
Demand for newbuilding services is the result of the aggregate demand for newbuildings in the tanker, dry, container and LPG shipping markets, plus that from all other shipping and offshore markets.
This is compared to shipyard capacity by an analysis of global shipbuilding. Through a comparison of intertemporal factors describing shipyards competitive situation, factoring supply and demand, we have designed a modeling framework for predicting future newbuilding and secondhand prices.
For more information about the ViaMar Asset Market Outlook contact:
Ingrid Aas, Senior Shipping Economist
Thomas Zwick, Senior Shipping Economist